Ka honuawaihona ikehu pākaukauhiki i ka 92 gigawatts-247 gigawatt-hours-ma 2025, me ka pau ole i ka wai pumped, e like me ka BloombergNEF ikepili hoʻolaha hou loa. Hōʻike kēlā i kahi lele 23% mai ka 70GW i hoʻokomo ʻia ma 2024, ʻo ia ka mea i pālua i nā helu o 2023. Ua hui pū ka ʻāpana i kāna moʻolelo ʻehā{21}}kahi makahiki. Hoʻonui ʻia ka ulu ʻana o ka makahiki ma kahi o 14.7% a hiki i 2035, ma ia manawa e hoʻonui ʻia ka 220GW/972GWh. ʻO ka hiki ke hoʻokomo ʻia i ka honua holoʻokoʻa e hiki i 2 terawatts ma ka waena o 2030s. No laila ʻae-ke ulu nei nā ʻano. ʻO ka nīnau ʻoi aku ka hoihoi ma hea a pehea, a ʻo wai ka mea i pau ma ka ʻaoʻao hewa o ka ulu.
Ka Makahiki Loaʻa i nā mea a pau
ʻO ka makahiki 2025 ka makahiki o ka pāhana hola gigawatt-.
ʻAʻole wale ma nā wahi maʻamau. Ua hoʻonohonoho ʻia a i ʻole nā wahi i wāwahi ʻia ma Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Australia, Netherlands, Chile, Canada, UK. Ua hoʻopili wale nā Saudis i kahi papahana 7.8GWh i ka pule i hala ma ʻekolu mau wahi ma nā panalāʻau komohana hema-Sungrow i hāʻawi aku ma luna o 1,500 PowerTitan pūnaewele i nā lā 58. Ke hoʻoikaika ʻia, lilo ʻo ia i ʻōnaehana pākaukau hana nui loa o ka honua. ʻO ka moʻolelo mua ma kahi o ʻewalu mahina.
Ua hoʻopaʻa inoa ʻo BYD i nā ʻaelike no 12.5GWh ma waena o ʻelima mau kahua Saudi ma mua o kēia makahiki. Ua lawe ʻo Hithium i kahi 4GWh hou. Ma ka waena o -2025, ma kahi o 13GWh o ka mānoanoa -pālākiō e hana ana a i ʻole e hoʻopau ana i ke kūkulu ʻia ʻana ma ke Aupuni, me nā manaʻo e hōʻike ana he 33.5GWh i ka makahiki 2026. ʻO ia ka mea e lilo ai ʻo Saudi Arabia i ke kolu o ka mākeke waihona nui loa ma hope o Kina a me US. He ʻāina ʻaʻole i loaʻa i ka pae mālama mālama ikehu ʻekolu makahiki i hala.
Ua lilo mālie ʻo Italia i mākeke pākaukau hoihoi loa o ʻEulopa. Ua lele nā ʻōnaehana i hoʻokomo ʻia i ka 23% i ka makahiki i hala ma ka helu, akā 52% ma ka mana ikehu a me 40% ma ka mana hoʻopuka -nā ʻōnaehana ʻano nui e huki ana i nā awelika. ʻElua mau mea kanu hoʻohana -pili 800MWh i hele mai ma ka pūnaewele i ka makahiki 2024 wale nō. Ua kapa ʻia ʻo Aurora Energy Research ʻo ia ka manawa ʻōmaʻomaʻo maikaʻi loa ma ʻEulopa i kēia manawa, e ʻoi aku ana i ka paipu ʻoi aʻe o UK akā e piʻi nui ana.
Ke holo mau nei ʻo Kina i ka papaʻaina
Ma luna o ka hapalua o nā hoʻohui gigawatt honua 2025 e pae i Kina. ʻAʻole ka nūhou, akā ke kāhāhā mau nei ka pālākiō.
Ua wehe ʻo Beijing i nā kauoha mālama no nā papahana hou hou ma mua o kēia makahiki-he neʻe e hoʻolohi i nā mea. ʻAʻole i loaʻa. Hoʻolaha mau nā aupuni panalāʻau i kā lākou pono ponoʻī. I ka mahina o Kepakemapa, ua puka mai kahi pahuhopu mālama ʻāina hou, e kuhikuhi ana i ka lawe ʻia ʻana o ke kauoha ʻo ia ka mālama hale hoʻomalu ma mua o ka hoʻihoʻi ʻana i nā kulekele. ʻO ka neʻe ʻana i ka ulu ʻana o ka mākeke-ma o ke kālepa ʻokoʻa a me nā papahana uku panalāʻau. ʻOi aku ka maikaʻi o ka hana ma mua o nā mandates he nīnau hāmama. Makemake ʻo Kina e noʻonoʻo i nā mea.
Hoʻoponopono nā mea hana Kina ma kahi o 80% o ka mākeke kelepona kelepona honua. ʻO ke koena 20% e hilinaʻi pinepine i nā ʻāpana Kina. Hoʻonui kēia mana i kēlā me kēia kihi o ke kaulahao hoʻolako -mea anode hana, ka hana graphite, LFP cathodes. CATL, BYD, EVE Energy, CALB, Hithium: ʻike ʻia kēia mau inoa ma nā hoʻolaha papahana mai Riyadh a Roma a Queensland.
Ke mau nei ka pilikia overcapacity. ʻO ka hiki ke hana i ka 2 TWh kūʻē i ka 1.2 TWh o ka koi maoli. Ua pohō nā mea hana Cathode-no nā makahiki ʻekolu. Hoʻohana kekahi poʻe mākaʻikaʻi ʻoihana i ka huaʻōlelo "involution"-hoʻokūkū hoʻokūkū hoʻopōmaikaʻi e pōmaikaʻi ana i ka poʻe kūʻai aku i ka wā e wehe ana i nā mea hana. Ua hōʻuluʻulu ʻo Beijing i nā hālāwai ulia pōpilikia me nā mea hana kiʻekiʻe i kēia makahiki, e hoʻāʻo ana e kāpae i ka heihei i lalo. Ua hoʻopaʻa ʻia ka ʻenehana LFP e hoʻokuʻu aku.
Nā kikowaena ʻikepili komo i ke kamaʻilio
Ma ʻaneʻi ka mea hoihoi wikiwiki.
Hoʻolālā ʻo Gartner i ka piʻi ʻana o ka uila i ka 16% i ka makahiki 2025 wale nō, a laila e pāpālua ʻia i ka makahiki 2030. E hōʻike ana nā kikowaena AI -opono i ka 44% o ka hoʻohana ʻana i ka mana kikowaena data ma 2030, mai ka 21% i kēia lā. Ua hoʻoponopono hou ʻo BloombergNEF i kāna kuhi mana mana kikowaena kikowaena US ma 36% i Kekemapa-i 106 gigawatts i ka makahiki 2035.
ʻO ia ma kahi o 100 miliona mau hale o ka uila, no ka pōʻaiapili.
Ua hoʻolōʻihi ʻia nā laina laina pili ma Virginia i ʻehiku mau makahiki. ʻAʻole ʻehiku mahina. Ke hoʻokūkū nei nā kikowaena ʻikepili i kekahi i kekahi a me nā mea ʻē aʻe no ka liʻiliʻi o ka hiki ke hoʻopili, nā transformers, switchgear, a me nā mea uila kūpono. ʻAʻole ʻo ka bottleneck ke kapikala a i ʻole ke kūkulu ʻia-e loaʻa ana ka ʻae e hoʻopili.
Ke puka mai nei ka waiho ʻana i ka pākaukau ma ke ʻano he kumu -koʻikoʻi no kēia māhele. Hoʻohana ʻia nā kikowaena ʻikepili i 24/7 me nā koi kowali nui ʻaʻole i hoʻolālā ʻia nā grids hoʻoilina. Hiki i nā ʻakomi ke hoʻohaʻahaʻa i ka liʻiliʻi, nā piko maʻemaʻe, hāʻawi i ke kākoʻo me ka ʻole o nā mea hoʻoheheʻe diesel, a-koʻikoʻi-e hoʻoikaika wikiwiki i nā mea hana ma ka hōʻemi ʻana i nā pono hoʻonui.
Hoʻomaopopo ʻo Wood Mackenzie he 53GW o "nā ukana nui" me nā kikowaena ʻikepili a me nā hale hana e hele mai ma ka pūnaewele i nā makahiki he ʻumi e hiki mai ana. Pono ka hoʻoikaika ʻana iā lākou, ma kā lākou ʻōlelo, kahi ala "a pau o luna". ʻO ka waihona kahi ʻāpana o kēlā "ma luna."
ʻO ke ʻano o ka uku he ʻino
Ua manaʻo ʻia ka mākeke US e hoʻohui i ka 15-19GW o ka mālama ʻana i ka nui o ka pono ma 2025. Ma mua o ʻApelila.
Ua hoʻokiʻekiʻe ʻo Trump i nā kumukūʻai kumu ma nā mea lawe mai Kina a hiki i ka 145% i ka hoʻomaka o ʻApelila. A laila, ʻoki ka hoʻomaha hapa i ka mahina o Mei i ka 30% a hiki i ka waena -ʻAukake. A laila, ho'onui 'ia nā kumukū'ai ma luna o ka graphite-93.5% ma luna o nā 'oihana 25% Biden-era.i kēia manawa i Iulai. Kūleʻa nā mea anode ikaika i nā noiʻi antidumping. ʻO ka uku kumukūʻai kūpono ma nā pūnaewele lithium-ion Kina no ka mālama ʻana i ka ikehu e holo nei ma waena o 54% a me 104%, ma muli o ka hoʻohālikelike ʻana a me ka pule āu e noi ai.
Hōʻike ka nānā ʻana i nā hihia kumu-BNEF he 54% e hoʻonui ana i nā kumukūʻai ʻehā-hola ʻehā ma 30% ma 2025, i $266/kWh. Hōʻike kā lākou 145% hiʻohiʻona i ka 51-74% haʻahaʻa haʻahaʻa haʻahaʻa makahiki ma waena o 2025 a me 2027 i hoʻohālikelike ʻia i nā projections baseline.
Ua hōʻike ʻia ʻo Anza Renewables i Iune e hāʻawi ana i nā kumukūʻai ʻōnaehana AC he 56-68% kiʻekiʻe ma mua o nā pae o Ianuali, ma muli o ka māhele mākeke. ʻAʻole ia he typo. Ke hoʻomaha nei nā papahana, ke kūkākūkā hou ʻana o nā ʻaelike, ke hoʻololi hou ʻana o nā kaulahao.
Loaʻa i ka haunaele ke kala kala ʻino: ua holo wikiwiki ka hoʻonohonoho ʻana e lanakila i nā lā palena. Ua piʻi aʻe nā mea hoʻokomo mai South Korea i 225% hapaha-ma mua o-hāhā ma muli o ka ʻimi ʻana o nā mea hoʻomohala i ka lako ʻole-Pake. Ua hōʻiliʻili ʻia nā waihona. ʻO nā papahana - hope loa i holo i ka hana. ʻIke maikaʻi nā helu 2025 no ka mea ua manaʻo ka poʻe a pau he weliweli ka 2026.
Ke hoʻonohonoho nei nā mea hana Korea-LG Energy Solution, Samsung SDI, SK On-e hoʻopiha i nā āpau i hana ʻia e nā uku. Hoʻohana ʻo LG i ka hale kelepona LFP wale nō e hana nei i kēia manawa ma US, ma kāna mea kanu Michigan. Ke hoʻololi nei ʻo Samsung a me SK i nā laina a i ʻole ke kau inoa ʻana i nā kuʻikahi lako. Hiki paha i nā koi maʻiʻo home ke hoʻoikaika i ka hoʻopili ʻana. ʻO ka nīnau ka manawa, ka nui, a inā hiki i kēia mau hui ke hoʻohālikelike i nā hale kumukūʻai Kina. Hōʻike o kēia manawa: ʻaʻole maoli.
Ala aʻe ʻo ʻEulopa
Ua hoʻohui ʻo Italia ma luna o 6GWh o ka waiho ʻana hou i ka makahiki 2024-he 58% makahiki-ma-ke piʻi makahiki-me ka helu helu-pono no 3.4GWh. ʻO ia ka piʻi ʻana he 15 mau mea hoʻohui nui i hoʻohālikelike ʻia i ka makahiki i hala. Ma Sepatemaba 2025, ua loaʻa i ka ʻāina he 848,814 mau ʻōnaehana mālama electrochemical pili e hōʻike ana ma kahi o 17.5GWh o ka ikehu.
Ua hōʻea ʻo UK ma kahi o 5.9GW/8.2GWh o ka mana BESS hana ma mua o kēia makahiki, me kahi 6.3GW/13.2GWh i ʻae ʻia a hana ʻia ma o ka hoʻomohala ʻana. ʻO Aurora Energy Research papahana 10.3GW i hoʻokomo ʻia ma ʻEulopa i kēia lā e ulu ana i 55GW e 2030 a me 126GW e 2050.
Ua hala aku ʻo Kelemania i ʻelua miliona mau ʻōnaehana pākaukau pili i Iulai, me 14.5GW o ka mana i kau ʻia a me 22GWh o ka hiki ke loaʻa. Ua hoʻokomo ʻo Finland i 20% hoʻoemi ʻauhau no PV-me-mea hoʻokomo waihona. Ua hoʻokuʻu ʻo Romania i nā ʻōnaehana mālama mai nā uku grid like ʻole, e ʻoki ana i nā kumukūʻai hana 20-30%. Ua hoʻokaʻawale ʻo Netherlands i ka € 100 miliona no ka hāʻawi kālā ʻana i ka pākaukau i kēia makahiki.
Ua ʻoi aku ka nui o ka mānoanoa -pūnaewele ma ʻEulopa no ka manawa mua ma 2024. Ke neʻe nei ka ʻenekini ulu.
Hoʻolālā ʻo InfoLink i ka mākeke ʻEulopa e hoʻohui ana i ka 27GWh i 2025, a piʻi i 41% makahiki-ma-makahiki. Mālama ʻo Italia i kona lei aliʻi, ʻo Kelemania ke kūlana ʻelua, a ke hoʻololi nei nā mea hoʻohana ma Sepania, Pelekiuma, a me nā ʻāina ʻē aʻe i ka ʻāina mai ka hui kuʻuna UK-Kelemānia-Italia triangle.
Pehea e pili ana i nā mea ʻokoʻa?
Loaʻa ka leo o nā pihi kahe. Pono kekahi.
Ua pōmaikaʻi ʻo Eos Energy a me Invinity Energy Systems mai ka UK's LDES Cap and Floor scheme. Ua kauoha ʻo ESS Tech i kahi ʻōnaehana kahe hao 10MW/100MWh-ma Kaleponi i Kepakemapa, e kākoʻo ana i 12-hola hoʻokuʻu. Ua haki ʻo Form Energy i kāna hale hana hao-ea pāʻoihana mua ma West Virginia, e kuhikuhi ana i nā ʻōnaehana hoʻokuʻu 100-hola.
ʻO ka pilikia: ʻaʻohe o kēia mau ʻoihana i ʻike i ka loaʻa kālā. Ua lele ʻo Eos i ka loaʻa kālā he 240% makahiki-ma-makahiki ma H1 2025 akā ua hoʻonui pū i kona poho i $207.8 miliona. Loaʻa ka mākeke kemika non{7}} akā ua kaupalena ʻia. Hoʻopili ka hapa nui o nā mea hoʻomohala i nā mea e hana ma ka pālākiō.
ʻO ka Lithium{0}}ion he 70% o ka 64.7GWh o ka -lā (8-12 hola) lōʻihi-pāhana e huli ana i nā hana a hiki i ka makahiki 2030. ʻO ka lua ka lua o ka ea kaomi ma 20%. ʻO nā mea ʻē aʻe a pau-e kahe ana i nā ʻakika, ka ea wai, ka wela, ka umekaumaha-hoʻokaʻawale i ke koena 10%.
Ua hoʻomaopopo ʻo BNEF ua pani ʻia ka waiho ʻana o ka ea wela a me ka puʻupuʻu me ka lithium -ion no ka lōʻihi o ka lōʻihi: $232/kWh a me $293/kWh pakahi, kūʻē i ka $304/kWh no ʻehā -hola ʻōnaehana lithium i kā lākou noiʻi 2023. Akā ʻo ka pani ʻana i kahi āpau a lanakila i ka heihei he mau mea ʻokoʻa. Ke holomua nei ka Lithium-ion. Holo ka pahu hopu.
ʻO Kaleponi i ka makahiki 2027 kūʻai kikowaena a hiki i ka 1GW o 12-hola waiho ʻia ʻaʻole i hoʻopaʻa ʻia nā ʻona lithium- lōʻihi-he koho kulekele noʻonoʻo e hāʻawi i nā ʻenehana hou i kumu hoʻāʻo. Inā lākou e hōʻoia i kekahi mea e ʻike ʻia.
No laila, ʻAe-Akaka
Ke ulu nei ka mākeke. He nīnau iki kēlā nīnau.
Ua paʻi hou nā hoʻohui makahiki. Hoʻonui ka hiki kumulative. Hāʻawi nā mākeke e puka mai ana i ka hoʻonui ʻana i nā ʻāpana-Middle East a me ʻApelika i lele i 381% ma ka manaʻo i manaʻo ʻia i ka makahiki 2025, e lilo ana i ʻāina ulu wikiwiki loa-a puni ka honua. Ua hāʻule nā kumukūʻai pākē he 45% no ka mālama ʻana i nā mea paʻa i ka makahiki 2025, ua hōʻea i ka $70/kWh a me ka hoʻolilo ʻana i nā pila i ka ʻāpana lithium -iona haʻahaʻa loa no ka manawa mua loa.
Noho ka ulu ma luna o nā kumu palupalu, ʻoiai. ʻO ka mana o ka hana ʻana o Kina, ʻo ia hoʻi, ua unuhi pololei ʻia ka ʻāʻī geopolitical i nā haʻalulu kumu kūʻai. Ua hōʻike mua nā kumukūʻai US i ka wikiwiki o ke kumukūʻai i ka wā e neʻe ai ke kulekele kālepa. ʻO nā laina laina laina laina i nā makahiki ma US a me UK. Hiki i ka noi kikowaena ʻikepili ke hoʻonui i ka ʻoihana ma mua o ka loaʻa ʻana o ka ʻoihana.
Akā, ulu? ʻAe. ʻAʻole maopopo nā helu. Hoʻolālā ʻo Mordor Intelligence i ka mākeke e hōʻea i $ 465 biliona e 2030. ʻIke ʻo Fortune Business Insights i ka waiho ʻana o ka pākaukau i $ 114 biliona e 2032. Ua wānana ʻo GM Insights i ka ākea ākea.ʻōnaehana mālama ikehumakeke ma mua o $5 trillion i ka makahiki 2034. ʻAʻole hiki i nā ʻoihana wānana ke ʻae i ka nui pololei-ʻokoʻa ko lākou ʻano hana-akā ua lokahi ke kuhikuhi.
ʻO ka mea e hana ʻia i loko o ia ulu ka mea nui. Inā hoʻokō ʻia nā manaʻo o Saudi Arabia ma ka papa manawa. Inā paha e piʻi ana ka pālākiō ʻEulopa- i ka hale noho. Inā pili paha ka hana ʻana o ʻAmelika i nā kumukūʻai Kina. Hiki paha i nā mea kikowaena data ke hoʻopaʻa i ka mana ma mua o ka hele ʻana o nā mea kūʻai aku. ʻO nā mea kemika ʻē aʻe e kālai i nā niches a i ʻole e mae i nā footnote.
ʻO ia nā nīnau hoihoi. Hāʻawi ka ulu i ke kua.